The development of Chukotka’s economy is affected by unfavourable climate (cold) and geographical (remoteness from the administrative and industrial centêes of Russia) factors. However, Chukotka has its own resource base, high-capacity energy resources, a stable management and supply system and its attractiveness as a subject of investment is becoming more vivid.
It is impossible to forecast what the balance of positive and negative factors will be. It will largely depend on the world prices for raw stuffs and priorities of the Federal Centre. The administration of Chukotka, for its part, has three major scenarios, and each of them has its pros and cons.
Option 1 is connected with the optimization of the size of the population. In this case, a part of the population engaged in the economy of the Okrug gets removed to more favourable climate zones. About 20 thousand people remain, 16 thousand of which are the native population. This way Chukotka will be preserved for future generations as a huge “national park” with the uniquely low level of interaction between the man and the nature.
Option 2 implies preservation of the present state of affairs. Probably they will keep investing in gold and silver mining. But upon the whole, nothing will change.
Option 3 is connected with the development in the full meaning of this word. This means attraction of investment into geological exploration, thermal power economy, coal and transport. Investment will make it possible to export coal to Asian countries, start trading in the Mexican and Japanese markets. A transfer from agriculture oriented at the native population to the advanced processing of meat and sea food.
The third option is viewed by the administration of the CHAO as the most prospective. The calculations show that about 100 billion rubles worth of investment is needed for the next 15 years. In order to estimate the size of this sum of money, it is necessary to compare it with the cost of the first two options. If it is decided that Chukotka has to become a national park, the state will have to spend 2.5 billion rubles on the “evacuation” of the population and another 30 billion on building and purchases of housing “on the continent.”
The program of the scenarios has been handed in for analysis by the Ministry of Development of the Region. The conclusion is planned for March, 2007.
If the third option wins the favour of the Ministry, the specialists think that by 2015, the Okrug will do without state subsidies. This will be achieved through building a floating atomic energy power station in Peveka, a deep-sea port, and an automobile highway connecting Magadan, Kolyma, Bilibino and Anadyr. The Okrug lays its hopes on the synergy effect from the parallel development of energy and mining industries and infrastructure.
And in middle-term perspective Option 3 will allow decreasing the level of state subsidies of Chukotka to about 30%.

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